The return of Donald Trump to the White House has introduced a new era of geopolitical uncertainty, particularly for Taiwan. As an island democracy standing in defiance of Beijing’s goal of reunification, the country has long relied on US support to deter Chinese aggression. However, with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and his recent abandonment of Ukraine, many in the island nation are left questioning whether America’s commitment to their security will endure. If Taipei can no longer count on Washington’s backing, it faces the grim prospect of standing alone against an increasingly assertive China.
Taipei’s defence ministry has been raising alarms about China’s increasing military activity, particularly its war drills off the nation’s southwestern coast. Beijing’s rhetoric has become increasingly aggressive, with Chinese officials equating Taipei’s resistance to “a mantis trying to stop a chariot,” emphasising their long-term goal of annexing the island nation.
Despite Taiwan’s resolve, Beijing’s growing assertiveness, combined with President Xi Jinping’s closer ties to Russia, suggests that China is emboldened to pursue its ambitions. The island nation’s fate depends not only on its own military preparedness but also on the strength of US commitments—a factor that has come under question with the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
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Trump’s transactional approach
Since his return to the presidency, Donald Trump has shown little inclination to make clear commitments regarding Taipei. When asked whether the US would prevent a Chinese takeover of the island by force, Trump declined to comment, stating, “I never comment on that. I don’t want to ever put myself in that position.” This stance of strategic ambiguity may seem like a continuation of past US policy, but Trump’s actions elsewhere suggest a more worrisome pattern.
Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who made explicit statements that the US military would defend Taiwan if attacked, Trump’s reticence signals a potential shift. His administration’s transactional view of alliances—where financial contributions take precedence over democratic values—raises fears that Taiwan could be treated as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Beijing. Trump’s past complaints that Taipei took the US semiconductor industry and his demand that it pay for US defence support highlight his preference for deal-making over ideological commitments.
Taiwan fears repeat of Ukraine
One of the most alarming signals for Taiwan is Trump’s reversal on Ukraine. The former president has blamed Ukraine for Russia’s invasion, sought to withdraw US support, and entertained negotiations that would force Ukraine to cede territory to Moscow. This shift has sent shockwaves through US allies, with the island nation particularly concerned that it might face a similar fate.
Taipei’s leaders had closely linked their security concerns to those of Ukraine, emphasising that democracies must stand together against authoritarian aggression. However, with Trump’s apparent willingness to abandon Ukraine, Taipei authorities and citizens are growing anxious. Could the US pull the rug from under Taipei in a future conflict with Beijing? The fear is that, just as Trump sees Ukraine’s security as expendable, he may treat Taipei’s sovereignty as a negotiable issue with Xi Jinping.
Trump’s expansionism may embolden Beijing
Trump’s foreign policy in his second term has not only been unpredictable but also expansionist. Reports indicate that he has floated plans to annex Greenland, the Panama Canal, and even parts of Canada. By doing so, Trump has severely undermined the very principles of international law that have long justified US opposition to China’s ambitions in Taipei. If the US embraces expansionism itself, how can it credibly argue against China’s claim over Taiwan?
China’s leadership is watching closely, seeing in Trump’s actions a tacit approval of territorial annexations by force. The collapse of the “rules-based international order,” which the US once championed, could provide Beijing with the justification it needs to move aggressively on Taiwan. If might is indeed right, as Trump’s actions suggest, China may calculate that the world will ultimately accept its annexation of Taipei as a fait accompli.
A moment of reckoning for Taipei
Faced with increasing uncertainty about US support, Taipei has been ramping up its military spending, raising defence expenditures to 3% of GDP. Taipei officials have also been carefully calibrating their messaging, avoiding direct criticism of Trump while doubling down on their commitment to democracy and regional stability.
To secure US favour, Taiwan has explored deeper economic cooperation, including semiconductor investments in the US However, Trump’s unpredictable demands—such as imposing 25% tariffs on chip imports—suggest that Taipei might be forced into costly economic concessions just to keep Washington’s support. The fear is that even these measures might not be enough if Trump ultimately decides that Taiwan’s fate is secondary to a better deal with China.
Taiwan’s existence as an independent, democratic state is facing unprecedented uncertainty under Trump’s second presidency. With China increasing its military advances, and Trump’s foreign policy shifting towards isolationism and deal-making, Taipei risks being left in a precarious position.
The stakes could not be higher. If Taiwan falls, it would mark not just the triumph of Chinese expansionism but also the decline of US credibility as a defender of democracy. The world is watching, but for now, Taipei is left to survive these dangerous waters with no clear assurances from its most important ally.