China’s Brahmaputra dam: China has approved the construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet near the Indian border. This colossal project, estimated to cost $137 billion, has raised alarms in both India and Bangladesh over its environmental, diplomatic, and social implications. While Beijing asserts that the dam will not harm downstream countries, concerns persist about potential displacement of communities in Tibet and the broader ecological impact.
Located in a massive gorge where the Yarlung Zangbo—the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra—takes a dramatic U-turn to flow into Arunachal Pradesh and eventually into Bangladesh, the dam is set to become the planet’s largest infrastructure project. The project represents a total investment exceeding one trillion yuan.
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China’s Brahmaputra dam and Indian concerns
The Indian government fears that the dam’s enormous size and scale could allow China to control water flow, posing a strategic threat. During periods of hostilities, Beijing could potentially release vast amounts of water, causing floods in Indian border areas. A 2020 report by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, highlighted how control over rivers originating in the Tibetan Plateau gives China significant leverage over India’s economy.
Tibet’s longest river, the Yarlung Tsangpo, becomes the Brahmaputra when it flows into India and the Jamuna River in Bangladesh.
In response, India has accelerated plans to build its own large hydropower dam and reservoir. India intends to spend $1 billion to expedite the construction of 12 hydropower stations in Arunachal Pradesh. However, building a dams in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem presents significant engineering challenges, especially given the tectonic activity in the region.
Why is China building the mega dam
China’s proposed dam taps into one of its rainiest regions, promising abundant water resources and generating over 300 billion kWh of electricity annually—enough to power more than 300 million people. Yan Zbhiyong, former chairman of the Power Construction Corporation of China, has emphasised the Yarlung Zangbo River’s immense hydropower potential. The river’s lower reaches feature a 2,000-meter vertical drop over just 50 kilometres, providing an estimated 70 million kilowatts of exploitable energy.
This project will surpass the scale of China’s existing Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydropower station globally. Beyond energy generation, the dam will showcase China’s engineering prowess, solidifying its leadership in hydraulic infrastructure both domestically and internationally. Yan described the project as not just an energy initiative but a cornerstone of China’s national security strategy, providing water resources and economic stability. The project is expected to generate annual income of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) for the Tibet Autonomous Region.
The environmental and geopolitical fallout
India’s concerns extend beyond strategic considerations. The dam threatens the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, home to critically endangered species. Climate change, deforestation, and soil erosion compound the potential ecological risks. Flash floods or reduced water availability downstream could disrupt water supplies in India and Bangladesh, heightening fears of dependence on China for this critical resource.
In 2022, geopolitical strategist Genevieve Donnellon-May warned that the project could escalate tensions between India and China, potentially leading to ‘water wars’. These tensions highlight the need for transparency and dialogue. India and China currently engage through an expert level mechanism to discuss trans-border river issues. During a December meeting between National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, hydrological data-sharing discussions took place, reflecting the urgency of the situation.
The construction of the dam adds a new layer of complexity to the already strained ties between India and China. While recent efforts—such as the October meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping—sought to de-escalate border tensions, the dam threatens to reverse these gains. China’s unilateral actions on shared water resources could undermine trust and further complicate bilateral relations.
As India and China vie for control over the rich ecological and strategic resources of the Himalayan region, the potential consequences are profound. Beyond the immediate geopolitical stakes, the unique biodiversity of the region and the cultural heritage of its indigenous communities are at risk. While it remains uncertain whether the Brahmaputra dam will become a new flashpoint, one thing is clear: collaboration and transparency will be crucial to avoiding long-term conflict and ensuring sustainable management of shared water resources.