As Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House following a victory over Kamala Harris, he returns to an America shaped by evolving challenges and polarised sentiments. While Trump’s previous term brought bold changes, this time he faces heightened expectations and obstacles that could define his legacy. His campaign promises — from restoring economic health and law and order to reshaping immigration policy — suggest that Trump plans to tackle these issues head-on, but he will have to face several practical constraints and a sharply divided polity.
Trump’s return has sent ripples worldwide, signalling a shift in global diplomacy, trade, and security alliances. His victory embodies a renewed nationalism, with an emphasis on American priorities over traditional alliances. NATO members, for instance, may feel increased pressure to meet defence funding targets, or risk diminished US protection. Trade partners like China and the EU face the prospect of tougher negotiations and higher tariffs, potentially disrupting supply chains and price stability. Trump’s pledge to reduce US involvement in foreign conflicts could also reshape the geopolitical order, particularly in Ukraine, where his proposed negotiations with Russia. Ultimately, Trump’s victory will mean a new global order where nations will reconsider their reliance on American leadership.
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US economy: Big promises, limited leverage
Central to Trump’s agenda is economic revival, with a pledge to “end inflation and make America affordable again.” Despite a steep decline in inflation from the highs of 2022, many Americans are still feeling the pinch of high food and housing costs. Trump’s proposed solutions, including increased domestic energy production, a federal housing initiative, and restrictions on undocumented immigrants accessing mortgages, signal his commitment to lower costs.
Expanding energy production may offer a degree of price stability, but the market’s complexities and global factors mean Trump’s power to directly influence costs is limited. His proposed housing initiative, which includes using federal land for new developments, could address supply constraints, but it faces logistical and legislative hurdles, especially at a time when real estate policy remains highly contentious.
Trump has proposed extensive tax cuts, looking to extend those from his 2017 overhaul while offering further reductions to corporate taxes. While this approach could spur investment and growth, the long-term sustainability of the tax cuts is a subject of intense debate. Economists worry that extending these cuts, combined with an added corporate tax slash to 15%, could inflate the deficit, especially when paired with Trump’s promise to abolish taxes on Social Security payments. The administration will face the challenge of balancing economic growth with the fiscal discipline needed to prevent deepening the national debt.
Trade and tariffs: Allies vs tariffs
In his first term, Trump championed protectionist trade policies, imposing tariffs on Chinese imports to revitalise US manufacturing. He aims to ramp up tariffs further, targeting not just China but also many foreign goods, with new rates as high as 20%. While these tariffs align with his America First philosophy, they risk triggering price increases that would impact American consumers directly.
In his second term, Trump will need to grapple with the tension between promoting domestic industries and managing inflationary pressures. Many economists warn that such high tariffs, especially on Chinese imports, may push up prices across sectors. For Trump, maintaining voter confidence will require finding a delicate balance — ensuring that tariffs protect American jobs without compromising consumer affordability.
Immigration reform: A renewed border agenda
Immigration has long been one of Trump’s defining issues. With record-high border crossings in recent years, Trump is once again prioritising the completion of the border wall and a massive deportation effort. His administration envisions removing up to a million undocumented migrants, though legal and logistical challenges make such large-scale deportations complex.
This strict stance on immigration has sparked concerns over economic impacts, especially as sectors like agriculture and construction rely heavily on immigrant labour. Trump’s approach may appeal to his base, but its potential impact on economic growth and job market stability could be significant, particularly in industries that rely on skilled migrant labour. Furthermore, a proposal to end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants could face considerable legal pushback, potentially creating another battleground in his broader immigration agenda.
Healthcare: Campaign promises vs legislative realities
Trump’s healthcare policies, including his promise not to cut Medicare, are central to his message. While he previously attempted to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, he has recently taken a more moderate stance. His suggestion for taxpayer-funded fertility treatments, for example, indicates a willingness to support specific healthcare initiatives. However, implementing such measures will require bipartisan support — something Trump struggled with during his last term.
The administration faces a broader challenge in reconciling conservative calls for limited government intervention with public demand for accessible healthcare. Trump will need to address rising healthcare costs, an issue affecting millions of Americans, while balancing his party’s commitment to reducing government spending.
Foreign policy: Isolationist aspirations and global realities
Trump’s foreign policy outlook emphasises American isolationism, with a particular focus on reducing US involvement in global conflicts. His ambitious vow to end the Ukraine-Russia war “within 24 hours” reflects his eagerness for rapid resolutions, but it’s unclear how he plans to negotiate a settlement acceptable to both sides. Critics argue that such a hasty approach could undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and embolden Russia, setting a concerning precedent for US global leadership.
Trump’s stance on NATO and foreign aid further highlights his isolationist bent. By proposing that NATO members who fail to meet spending targets lose US protection, Trump is likely to strain US-Europe relations. While this policy might appeal to voters wary of US entanglements, it risks weakening alliances that have historically bolstered American security and influence abroad.
Social issues and cultural tensions
As the first election since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, abortion remains a contentious issue. Trump’s attempt to strike a balance on this topic, such as opposing a federal abortion ban while also criticising extreme restrictions, reflects his struggle to maintain support among both conservative and moderate voters. His stance, which seems to fluctuate, has drawn criticism from both sides, suggesting that abortion will be a challenging area for Trump’s administration.
On other social issues, including crime and climate policy, Trump is doubling down on familiar themes. He plans to bolster law enforcement, tackle drug cartels, and combat gang violence — measures likely to resonate with his law-and-order base. However, his promise to pardon convicted January 6 rioters could complicate his credibility on crime. Similarly, his anti-regulation stance on environmental issues may help industry stakeholders but faces opposition from environmental advocates and an increasingly climate-conscious public.
A fiscal balancing act
With the national debt reaching unprecedented levels, Trump’s economic agenda will need to address concerns over fiscal sustainability. His tax cuts and proposed tariffs may stimulate growth, but they could also deepen deficits if not balanced with spending cuts or alternative revenue streams. Trump will need to weigh the benefits of these economic policies against their potential impact on the federal deficit, a tightrope that will require careful calibration.
A major focus area will be entitlement reform, particularly Medicare and Social Security. While Trump has pledged not to cut benefits, experts warn that rising costs will require structural changes to these programs. To address the national debt effectively, Trump’s administration must find a solution that both preserves these essential services and manages their long-term financial viability.
As Trump prepares to step back into the Oval Office, he faces a litany of challenges that will test his leadership and legacy. His ambitious promises — from curbing inflation and reshaping trade to overhauling immigration and healthcare — represent a bold agenda. However, implementing these changes will require navigating an intensely polarised Congress, managing competing economic priorities, and addressing the concerns of a divided electorate.
Trump’s success in his second coming will depend not only on his ability to deliver on his campaign promises but also on his capacity to adapt to the evolving realities of America’s complex socio-political situation. As he takes over, the stakes are high, and the path forward is anything but certain.