India’s agriculture sector is increasingly vulnerable to the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Although the country reported a robust kharif output and better rabi sowing, thanks to improved reservoir levels, climate change remain a persistent threat, according to a recent study by the Reserve Bank of India.
The report, which analysed the impact of spatial variation in rainfall across districts on kharif crop production, highlights how deficient or excessive rainfall during specific periods can severely affect the yield and quality of certain crops. Extreme weather events, such as unusually high or low rainfall, often lead to significant crop damage, disrupting production and reducing yields. The timing of these events plays a critical role, as crop production cycles vary.
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How rainfall affects different crops
Insufficient rainfall during June and July adversely affects the output of cereals and pulses. On the other hand, oilseeds are particularly vulnerable to excessive rainfall during the harvesting months of August and September.
Empirical findings show that maize is more sensitive to rainfall variation than paddy, likely due to its reliance on natural water sources in rainfed regions. While rainfall deviations currently have only a marginal negative effect on total cereal and paddy production, the report finds that paddy is relatively resilient to rainfall shortages due to widespread irrigation use. However, excessive rainfall can reduce maize production by 0.011%.
Certain pulses such as arhar, moong, and urad benefit from increased rainfall—every 1% increase in rainfall leads to a 0.33% rise in their combined output. Among oilseeds, soybean is especially vulnerable to excess rainfall, which significantly lowers its production.
The bottom line is that crops require rainfall that is neither excessive nor deficient. While cereals, pulses, and oilseeds thrive with timely and adequate rainfall, deviations during key growth stages can result in substantial losses.
Climate vulnerability across regions
India’s overdependence on rainfall for agriculture has long been a cause for concern—an issue further exacerbated by climate change and the growing prevalence of heatwaves. The country is among the most vulnerable to climate-related disruptions, and it is high time it adapts to this new reality.
Vulnerability also varies regionally. Arid zones in Rajasthan, flood-prone regions in Assam and Bihar, and coastal areas susceptible to cyclones face heightened risks from extreme weather. Therefore, more research is needed to understand how the spatial distribution of climate events affects cropping cycles and agricultural productivity across regions.
A monsoon paradox
India’s 2024 monsoon was the heaviest since 2020. While it helped alleviate the effects of the previous year’s drought, it also brought chaos. Excess rainfall damaged summer crops, contributing to food inflation and economic strain. As the country grapples with erratic monsoons and rapidly changing global climate patterns, the challenges to food security persist.
The economic costs of weather anomalies are twofold. First, producers—mainly small and marginal farmers, who comprise the majority of India’s poor—suffer income losses from crop damage. Second, rising food prices reduce access to nutritious diets, disproportionately affecting economically disadvantaged populations.
Climate change fuelling food inflation
Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank have warned that global warming will likely drive up inflation, especially in developing economies like India.
In the August 2024 edition of the RBI Bulletin, Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra, along with Joice John and Asish Thomas George, highlighted how climate change is now a major factor behind food price inflation. They described food inflation as becoming “endemic,” as erratic weather and extreme climatic events increasingly disrupt supply chains, displacing the traditional demand-supply framework.
Between 2016 and 2020, India’s average food inflation stood at 2.9%. In the 2020s, it has more than doubled, averaging 6.3%, underscoring how climate events have emerged as the dominant force driving food price increases.
Policy measures for climate-resilient agriculture
The RBI report stresses the need for region-specific and crop-specific water management strategies to address the impact of weather anomalies. It recommends that policymakers and agricultural extension services encourage a combination of crop diversification, improved drainage infrastructure, and planting strategies that reduce the risk of waterlogging. These steps will be vital to building resilience to rainfall variability.
While improving irrigation systems remains essential, adopting climate-resilient crop varieties will be central to maintaining stable yields despite unpredictable monsoon patterns. India must also invest in long-term solutions such as Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), which includes conservation tillage, crop rotation, and integrated nutrient management. These practices must be supported with comprehensive farmer training programs to enable successful adoption at the grassroots level.
Further, substantial investment is needed in developing drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties, as well as in establishing well-managed seed banks. To enhance resilience, India must modernise irrigation infrastructure using water-efficient technologies and encourage rainwater harvesting. Promoting crop diversification can also reduce risks associated with climate-induced yield volatility, but achieving this requires sustained funding for agricultural research and innovation.
Equally important is the need to strengthen early warning systems using advanced weather forecasting technologies. Expanding crop insurance coverage can provide a financial buffer for farmers, while improvements in post-harvest management will help reduce immediate losses during extreme weather events.
The rising frequency and intensity of climate-related disruptions pose a serious threat to India’s food production and food security. However, with coordinated action involving farmers, policymakers, researchers, and international partners, India can adapt to the evolving climate landscape and secure its agricultural future.