Coal energy push vs climate goals: The world’s largest carbon emitters are grappling with an uncomfortable reality: a resurgent reliance on coal threatens to derail their climate commitments. While the global transition to renewable energy is advancing, recent trends in coal production and consumption suggest that some of the world’s biggest polluters are struggling to curb their dependence on the dirtiest fossil fuel. Reports from the US, China, India, and Europe highlight a disturbing pattern: coal is far from being phased out, and in some cases, its role in power generation is expanding. This poses a severe challenge to international climate goals and the global fight against climate change.
The ongoing coal resurgence is not occurring in isolation. The fossil fuel industry has long played a role in obstructing climate action through disinformation and political influence. For decades, major fossil fuel companies have downplayed scientific evidence of climate change while simultaneously investing in campaigns to discredit renewable energy solutions. Even as coal, oil, and gas corporations publicly claim to support sustainability, many continue to fund lobbying efforts aimed at delaying or weakening climate policies.
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This strategic deception has exacerbated the challenge of phasing out coal, making it harder for governments to implement effective energy transitions. As coal consumption persists—often under the pretence of energy security—such industry-backed misinformation remains a formidable obstacle to real climate progress.
The US: Green transition with coal dependence
The US has made significant strides in clean energy adoption, particularly after the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 spurred investments in renewables. However, the country remains the third-largest consumer of coal after China and India. With 210 active coal plants still operating in 2023, coal continues to play a crucial role in the US energy mix, despite projections of declining consumption.
Under President Donald Trump, the future of coal in the US remains uncertain. While coal is economically unviable compared with renewables—99% of US coal plants are more expensive to operate than solar or wind alternatives—Trump’s administration is taking steps to sustain the industry. Trump has issued executive orders lifting regulations on fossil fuel development, directly threatening Biden’s goal of a carbon-free power sector by 2035.
One of Trump’s most controversial proposals is his push to use coal to power data centres. With the rising electricity demand fuelled by artificial intelligence, Trump has touted coal’s reliability as a constant power source, unlike solar and wind, which are weather-dependent. He has even suggested rolling back Biden’s climate policies to enable the construction of new coal plants, a move that would reverse years of progress in emissions reductions. However, most experts agree that constructing new coal plants in the US would be difficult due to financial risks and investor reluctance.
While new coal projects may struggle to gain traction, Trump could extend coal’s lifespan by reversing retirements of existing coal plants. During Biden’s presidency, coal plants were incentivised to close before 2032 to avoid costly emissions regulations. However, Trump’s deregulatory approach has already led to delayed retirements, with some smaller coal plants postponing shutdowns. This could provide a short-term boost for coal, particularly for high-energy-demand industries like AI data centres.
As Trump continues to weaken environmental regulations, the impact on the US energy landscape remains to be seen. While some coal plants may operate longer than initially planned, most analysts agree that coal is an energy source of the past. Given its economic disadvantages and the ongoing renewable energy boom, coal is unlikely to regain its dominance in the American power sector, despite Trump’s best efforts.
China: A massive expansion of coal power
China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, is facing a paradox. While it continues to set records for renewable energy capacity additions—adding 356 gigawatts (GW) in 2024—it is simultaneously expanding its coal power infrastructure at an alarming rate. Reports from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) and Global Energy Monitor (Gem) indicate that China approved 66.7 GW of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, with coal plant construction reaching a decade-high of 94.5 GW.
The surge in coal power projects is largely driven by industry interests pushing for energy security. These stakeholders recognise that China’s 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality targets may eventually restrict coal expansion, leading them to secure growth before stricter policies take effect. While China’s renewables are helping to slow the rise in emissions, the continued expansion of coal threatens to prolong the country’s high carbon output, making it harder to meet its climate pledges.
India: Struggling to balance growth and decarbonisation
India presents another complex case. As one of the fastest-growing major economies, India’s energy demand is surging, and coal remains central to meeting this demand. Coal accounts for about 70% of the country’s energy supply, and while India has set ambitious renewable energy targets—aiming for 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030—the transition is constrained by economic and social realities.
The country’s dependence on coal is deeply tied to employment and energy security. Immediate divestment from coal could disrupt industries, cost millions of jobs, and hinder economic growth. Even state-of-the-art coal plants, like Tata Power’s Trombay facility, emit substantial amounts of CO₂, making it clear that India must accelerate its renewable energy transition while ensuring a just transition for coal-dependent communities.
Europe: Rising gas prices trigger a coal comeback
Northern Europe, particularly Germany and Poland, has experienced a surge in gas-fired power generation in early 2025. However, with gas prices soaring to their highest levels since 2023, coal is becoming a more attractive alternative. The cost of generating power from gas has surpassed the coal-switching price, prompting some European nations to increase coal-fired electricity production despite long-standing commitments to phase it out.
Germany and Poland, in particular, are expected to ramp up coal-fired generation in response to the high cost of gas. This shift risks reversing years of progress in reducing coal dependency and will have significant emissions repercussions. While the United Kingdom has eliminated coal-fired power, other European nations appear to be struggling with maintaining energy affordability while meeting their emissions reduction targets.
Resurgence of coal energy: Global climate implications
The resurgence of coal across multiple major economies is a direct threat to global climate action. Coal remains the single largest source of CO₂ emissions from human activity, and increasing coal consumption in any form makes it more challenging to achieve the necessary emissions reductions to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Key questions remain: How long will this renewed coal reliance last? Will nations take corrective action before it becomes entrenched? The answer largely depends on how aggressively these countries scale up renewable energy, improve grid efficiency, and implement carbon pricing mechanisms that make coal uneconomical. Governments must also provide financial and social support for workers transitioning away from coal-dependent industries to ensure an equitable energy shift.
Despite the growing demand for cleaner energy, the recent coal surge underscores the difficulty of transitioning away from fossil fuels. Policymakers must act swiftly to prevent coal from undermining their climate goals. Strengthening emissions regulations, investing in grid modernisation, and scaling up energy storage solutions will be critical in breaking the cycle of coal dependence.
As the world heads toward key climate negotiations in the coming years, countries must reaffirm their commitment to phasing out coal. The costs of inaction are simply too high—rising global temperatures, worsening air pollution, and the long-term economic risks of failing to transition to a sustainable energy system. The time for half-measures is over; the world must decisively move beyond coal to ensure a liveable future for all.