Donald Trump’s re-election as the US president will have far-reaching consequences for global energy policies and climate negotiations. With climate agreements and mitigation efforts likely to take a backseat under his administration, India, too, will feel the ripple effects of Trump’s climate scepticism. A slowdown in climate action across emerging economies, including India, seems imminent. The pressing question is how India can negotiate this looming crisis.
Historically, countries like India have led efforts at global climate conferences, such as the COPs, urging the developed world to provide financial support for climate-induced damages. Trump’s stance on climate, however, threatens to undo much of this progress. The US wields significant influence in international negotiations, and its disengagement from climate talks could embolden other nations to follow suit. This domino effect would likely weaken commitments to reduce emissions globally.
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Threat to global climate treaties
A key achievement of COP27 was the establishment of the “Loss and Damage” fund to support vulnerable nations. Under Trump’s earlier administration, the US raised concerns about these agreements, citing potential economic disadvantages. Should the US reduce its contributions to such initiatives, the financial burden will disproportionately fall on other developed nations, jeopardising this cornerstone of climate justice and equity.
For India, this is particularly worrisome. As one of the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, India depends heavily on international climate finance to fund adaptation and resilience projects. The new Trump administration could limit access to these critical resources, delaying efforts to build climate-resilient infrastructure.
Respite for fossil fuel users
Ironically, a silver lining for India might emerge from the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuel policies. These policies could ease the pressure on developing nations like India to transition rapidly to greener energy sources. India’s energy strategy strikes a delicate balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability. With rising energy demands, the country still relies significantly on coal, oil, and natural gas.
For resource-abundant nations like India, a complete shift to renewable energy is a long-term goal. Coal, for instance, remains a key component of India’s energy mix due to its domestic availability. The US pivot toward fossil fuels could provide India with an opportunity to recalibrate its energy commitments, focusing instead on aligning short-term economic growth with realistic energy goals.
Opportunity for India’s clean energy sector
India’s clean energy industry may gain from the potential rollback of US clean energy initiatives under Trump. Reduced incentives for US solar and battery manufacturing could weaken American competitiveness, creating new market opportunities for nations like India. According to a study by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University, a rollback could cost the US up to $50 billion in export losses, opening an $80 billion market gap globally.
With a growing clean technology manufacturing base, India is well-positioned to fill this gap. Sectors such as solar energy, wind power, and electric vehicles could see significant growth as India capitalises on global demand. Moreover, increased US exports of LNG could diversify India’s energy imports, reducing its reliance on supplies from the volatile Middle East.
Balancing challenges with strategic partnerships
While Trump’s policies might align with India’s short-term energy goals, they pose significant risks to global climate ambitions. To mitigate these challenges, India must strengthen alliances with nations committed to climate action, such as the European Union, Japan, and even China. At the same time, India should prioritise domestic investment in renewables to offset the potential loss of US funding.
Despite the global headwinds, India’s renewable energy sector remains a bright spot, driven by public awareness and the need to combat urban pollution. Continued investment in emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, alongside established sectors like solar and wind energy, will be critical to maintaining momentum.
India cannot afford to derail its climate commitments now, especially given its significant progress and the looming threats of extreme weather events across South Asia. By fostering domestic policies and building resilient international partnerships, India can counterbalance the challenges posed by a Trump administration.
The road ahead requires careful navigation, but with strategic planning, India has the potential to transform challenges into opportunities, ensuring its energy security and climate goals remain on track.