The QUAD has emerged as a pivotal force in shaping the geopolitical equations of the Indo-Pacific. During the recent summit held in Wilmington, Delaware, on September 21, 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that the “QUAD is here to stay, assist, partner, and complement,” emphasising the enduring commitment of the four member nations — India, the United States, Japan, and Australia — to this strategic alliance. The evolving role of the bloc in the changing world order reflects its growing significance, but also the challenges it faces, both internally and externally.
Since its inception in 2007, the group has transformed from a loosely structured dialogue into an institutionalised alliance with a broad range of initiatives. Originally conceived by Japanese then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the grouping has evolved to address not only traditional security concerns but also emerging global challenges such as climate change, technology development, and disaster resilience.
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Institutionalisation of QUAD
Under the Biden administration, the alliance has become a central pillar of the U.S. alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region, positioning itself as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence. At the 2024 summit, QUAD leaders reiterated their commitment to regional security, sustainable development, and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Flagship initiatives such as the QUAD-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission, set to launch in 2025, underscore the alliance’s focus on maritime security and a rules-based international order.
Meanwhile, new areas of cooperation, including the QUAD Cancer Moon-shot and the Maritime Legal Dialogue, highlight the alliance’s ambition to address both security and humanitarian concerns in the region. However, as the bloc takes on a more prominent role in global affairs, it faces a set of challenges that could shape its future trajectory.
Shared vision, divergent priorities
While the QUAD has institutionalised its diplomatic and military interactions, differences in strategic priorities among the member nations pose a significant challenge. The US sees the bloc as a vital part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at containing China’s rise. In contrast, India, Japan, and Australia have their own distinct approaches to managing relations with China.
India, in particular, must strike a delicate balance between its membership in alliance and its economic ties with China. Despite being a key player in the alliance, India remains heavily dependent on Chinese imports, which account for over 15% of its total imports. This economic reality, coupled with India’s non-military approach to regional security, complicates its position within the group. As India prepares to host the 2025 QUAD Leaders’ Summit, its role in navigating these complexities will be crucial to the future success of the alliance.
The differences in the four nations’ strategic interests are also evident in their varying responses to global crises. The recent QUAD summit in Delaware produced a lengthy joint statement that included moderate language on several key issues, reflecting the divergent positions of the member nations on hot-button topics such as the Ukraine war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the group has made progress in advancing cooperation on new security issues, including cybersecurity and critical technologies, its ability to align on core strategic issues, particularly concerning China, remains constrained.
Climate action and technology
Despite these challenges, the alliance’s commitment to addressing emerging global issues offers a path forward for deeper collaboration. Climate action has become a key area of focus, with the alliance launching several initiatives aimed at strengthening climate resilience and promoting clean energy solutions in the Indo-Pacific.
The QUAD Clean Energy Supply Chain Diversification Programme, launched in 2023, is a prime example of how the alliance is working to secure diversified energy supply chains while reducing emissions. Australia’s AUD 50 million investment in solar panel and battery supply chain development, along with significant US financial backing for renewable energy projects in India, underscores the group’s commitment to driving the clean energy transition in the region.
Furthermore, the QUAD Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP) presents a unique opportunity for India to take a leadership role within the alliance. With its ambitious goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel renewable energy capacity by 2030, India is well-positioned to steer discussions toward renewable energy and climate resilience. This aligns with India’s broader strategic priorities, including its leadership in the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).
The China dilemma: Containment or engagement
The most pressing challenge facing the bloc, however, is its relationship with China. While the alliance has been careful to frame its initiatives as cooperative rather than confrontational, there is no denying that its creation and evolution have been driven, at least in part, by concerns over China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
For the United States, the bloc is an integral part of its strategy to contain China’s rise through a network of alliances, including the AUKUS grouping and the emerging “Squad” bloc linking Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. However, the interests of the other bloc’s members are more nuanced. While Japan and Australia share U.S. concerns about China’s influence in the region, they also have significant economic ties with Beijing. India, meanwhile, must navigate its dual role as a member of both the QUAD and BRICS, a group that includes China.
The Biden administration’s efforts to institutionalise the bloc reflect a desire to create a durable alliance that can outlast domestic political changes in the US. As Biden himself noted at the Delaware summit, the QUAD is designed to endure way beyond November, signalling that the alliance will likely continue to play a central role in U.S. foreign policy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.
QUAD’s future in a multipolar world
As the Indo-Pacific faces a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, the QUAD will play a critical role in shaping the future of the region. However, the alliance’s success will depend on its ability to manage internal differences while adapting to external pressures, particularly its complex relationship with China.
To maximise its potential, the QUAD must continue to focus on areas of mutual interest, such as climate resilience and technology development, while carefully navigating the delicate balance between cooperation and competition with China. For India, this means leveraging its leadership within the alliance to pursue issue-based alignments that advance its own strategic priorities without becoming entangled in binding security agreements.
In an era of shifting alliances and growing multipolarity, the QUAD’s ability to evolve will determine its relevance in the changing world order. As Prime Minister Modi prepares to host the 2025 summit, India’s role in shaping the future of this critical alliance will be more important than ever.
(Yukta Anand is a research scholar at Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Delhi. Prof. Asheesh Pandey is Professor (Finance), and Dr Miklesh Prasad Yadav is Assistant Professor (Finance) at IIFT.)